Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model
This study by IIASA researchers provides a global scenario analysis that covers nine different climate scenarios, 18 crops and 4 crop management systems, as well as the interactions between crop production, consumption, prices, and trade. It specifically examines adaptations that are investment-intensive and not easily reversible, such as building new water management infrastructure for irrigation, or increases and decreases to the production capacity of a region. By combining the climate and yield projections with the IIASA Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM)—a global model that includes land use, trade, consumption, water resources, and other factors, — the researchers identified the likely needed adaptations and transformations for global agricultural systems. Overall, the study finds that almost no adaptation can be found to be robust across all scenarios.